Voice Operated computers thinktank using the delphi method

Voice controlled computing using AI.

In today’s computing environments, there is a lack of voice controlled computing devices that use AI to interact with the user. This is not to say that these devices do not exist but rather existing devices are lacking in the features that would be needed to make them truly voice only. Existing devices either must “hear” what is said or the user must use specific words or phrases to get the devices to do a task (with the majority of them only being able to take dictation or do searches).  For example on my Android powered phone, I must use pre defined words such as “call”, “Text”, “find”, “search” to get the phone to do any task. Additionally I must be very specific in what I want to get the phone to produce any kind of intelligent output.  Have you ever tried to use voice dialing on a blackberry? “Call mum,” phone responds with: “did you say call home?”  Now it is possible that the phone did not understand me because I have an accent but then again if this were truly AI based it should be able to understand me just as a human would (I am actually chuckling to myself since that last part is not really true since some people chose not to understand me… I have an accent, get over it).

For true voice operation computing devices should be able to understand or deduce commands no matter the words used or what order they are used. They should also be able to respond either by querying the speaker for additional information or speaking the requested information or telling the user that task has been successfully or unsuccessfully completed.  So for example if I say “ what is the weather forecast of Saturday?” my computer should be able to use AI to deduce that I need the weather forecast for Saturday and Saturday only. It should also be able to provide the same information if I only said “Saturdays weather forecast”. Getting computers to speak naturally has already been achieved at least on some systems (check out Alex on the mac…I was blown away).

Much as this is all fine and dandy in theory, there are several issues that need to be resolved or should I say dealt with before this vision can became a reality. Yes, a lot of work has been done on this subject and there is still a lot of work needed. What we do need at this time is not so much additional research in voice operated computing, or natural language processing or artificial intelligence but rather we need a paradigm shift  - a change in the way that we approach natural language processing and artificial intelligence. Not only do we have to reevaluate this, but we also need to switch gears in our understanding of the role played by natural language processing in scientific theory. Additionally there are many other areas that will also need changing (at least in the ways we think of them) because they too will be affected by the above mentioned paradigm shift.

I am sure that some of you reading this will fail to see the relevance or the need for such a system.  Well for you nay Sayers, imagine a blind person being able to use a computer just as you would but without the need for a keyboard and a pointing device but rather all they need is a microphone and speakers or in your case as a sighted person being in a car and needing some information on the fly. Would it not be fun if you could boot your computer and get the information you need just by talking to it and not only that you can talk to it in exactly the same way as you would talk to your peers or should I say the same way as you would command your secretary or personal assistant (assuming you have one). Actually, a system such as this eliminates the need for a personal assistant don’t you think?? I guess the question that arises then is how do we create such a system given that we are not experts in either the fields of voice recognition, Artificial Intelligence or Linguistics and for that matter psychologist (that is the different groups of people that will be involved)?

Did someone just say, “Use the Delphi Method”? That may just have been in my head but yes that is the methodology that should be used for studying or should I say finding a solution to a problem such as this one.  What is the Delphi Method? Good question. The Delphi method was developed as a means of seeking the opinions of experts to given problems without a need to have them in the same place at the same time. Cool huh!! The Delphi Method uses a group communication structure that facilitates discussions on specific task (http://pespmc1.vub.ac.be, 2011). This method usually involves anonymity of responses, feedback to the group as a whole or individually while at the same time giving participants to withdraw earlier judgment calls (http://pespmc1.vub.ac.be, 2011).  The Delphi method thus queries experts on any subject and following these the information is sent to all involved parties allowing them to reconsider their previous answers based on the responses of the others.

I guess the question on everyone’s minds at his point is: why would you use this method? What is so special about it that does not exist in the other methods (Nominal Group technique or PMI –Plus-Minus-Interesting). The beauty of the Delphi Method is that is very well suited for use in the discussion of questions or issues that must be tackled by a distributed group of experts – i.e. experts that are not located in the same area or field and cannot be logically brought together.  Additionally, the Delphi Method has the advantage that it can be used or should be used in situations that require that a consensus be reached. By far the greatest advantage of the Delphi method in my opinion is the fact that it is very effective when past data is absent. In our case, there is a lot of past data but this data and the relevant parties that need to extract and manipulate this data is by no means centrally located. 

Additionally and by no means the least of its advantages, the Delphi Method is very useful when forecasting of new technology is needed (http://web1.msue.msu.edu/msue/imp/modii/iii00006.html), as is the case here.

Furthermore, the Delphi Method allows participants to remain anonymous which in turn has the advantage of reducing social pressures, personality conflicts and individual dominance issues (http://web1.msue.msu.edu/msue/imp/modii/iii00006.html). The Delphi method also has the advantage of educating its respondents on all the diverse and interrelated parts of the issue or technology being investigated.

            Now to the downside (yes there is a downside to everything):

Much as the Delphi method is a great tool, it is not always great to use because for one thing, the results or consensus reached is the opinion of a select few which is by no means representative of the population as a whole (I am sure you understand this one …if you don’t there is a statistics class with your name on it).  The Delphi method is also lacking because it has a tendency of creating middle of the road positions just so a consensus can be reached. This tendency eliminates extreme positions on the right and left of the norm (http://web1.msue.msu.edu/msue/imp/modii/iii00006.html).  Finally and by no means the least of its worries, the Delphi method should not be used as the only forecasting tool in the box, using just it will only lead to skewed forecast. Phew!!! That was a long one…time for breather… breather taken lets continue...

We have thus far looked at voice-operated computing from the research standpoint since we have been concerned about how we will achieve this goal. Lets now look at some factors that will make or break this dream.

Forces For:

Technological:

Did I already mention that voice-operated computing is not a new idea as it has existed for some time now. It is the implementation that is lacking. With that being said, technology is advancing rapidly and it is thus not a far fetched idea that one day we will arrive at true voice operated computing. This idea is backed by the massive amounts of research and research groups that exist within the field of natural language processing, linguistics and artificial intelligence (AI).

Cultural:

Today’s world is turning us into very lazy people (and I don’t mean that in a bad way). We want to be able to do things faster and with very little effort.  Typing will soon be a thing of the past (actually it is a thing of the past if you have the money to shell out for one of those dictation systems) but this goes far beyond that. This system in my opinion will lead to a new way of doing things, a new way of human computer interaction.

Forces Against:

Socio-technological:

I guess the greatest force that would work against this kind of system is the socio-technological constraints that are needed to build it. What do I mean by this? The saying “too many cooks spoil the soup” comes to mind. We have already ascertained that for a system such as this to work it would take more than just hardware and software programmers but also linguist, psychologist and what have you. With this multiplicity of players, each with their on biases and ways and means of doing things, one can only marvel at the chaos that may ensue.  In that same light, it is my belief that they reason we have not arrived at such a system yet is that there are way too many players in the game. Much as having too many players may be a good thing, it also means that there is a duplication or triplication of efforts.

Financial:

Money, the root of everything evil rears its ugly head again. It is always fine and dandy to have people working on stuff but ideas such as these needs backing both financial and otherwise. The big boys such as IBM and Microsoft have funding programs for these kinds of ideas but then again it also means that they have control over how the projects are developed and implemented. Their open source counterparts on the other hand must contend with time available from volunteers, which is very often not forth coming. For an idea such as this one to fully work, there should be a financial backing with no strings attached allowing for full creativity of all parties concerned…. yeah that is going to happen.

The SixthSense

find the original video a
http://www.ted.com/talks/pattie_maes_demos_the_sixth_sense.html

Video description: 

This video details the SixthSense, a wearable device that allows for easy access to available metadata. The device is made of a simple webcam and a lightweight mirror based projector all linked to a cell phone that provides the internet connection. The beauty of the system is that it is dead cheap.

“Think Thank” Study areas:

Image recognition a.k.a computer vision

Gesture driven computing

Driving forces:

Potential or should I say technological:

In my opinion, this technology has a lot of potential is a low cost solution for mobile computing. For starters as stated in the video, this device will be made with readily available low cost materials amounting to about $350. In todays world having such a low cost computer would not only bring low cost computing to the masses but it will also lead in my opinion to a drop in the prices for many already on the market mobile devices. Additionally given the low production cost one can only imagine the uses of this system especially in less developed and developing countries where mobile computing is one of those things that is showing a lot of potential for low income people.

Ecological:

I am also very much impressed by the amount of material that is used in the making of this device. Not only does not use low cost readily available materials, but also the fact that it uses very few components as opposed to the conventional computer (desktop and laptop) means that it will leave a very small ecological footprint. In today’s world, when computers are no longer needed, a problem arises in what to do with them. Putting them in land fills or shipping them to other countries does not really solve the problem as the end result is that they always end up in the ground which not only pollutes our water ways but also the ground.  

Additionally, and I know most would not agree with me on this is the fact that this system as shown in the video gives us the opportunity to make ecologically sound choices when it comes to shopping. Imagine being at the store and you can get up to the minute information about what you are about to buy. Not only will we be able to buy products that are friendly to the environment but at the same time we should be able to reduce our dependence on desktop and laptop computing thus reducing the need for this forms of computing and in so doing reducing the need for disposing of these devices when they are not needed

Impeding forces:

Financial

            Though this system is a low cost option to mobile computing, it will in my opinion be impeded by its dependence on the mobile communication networks that are need to get the data. We are all very aware of the fact that many if not all telecom providers charge an arm, a leg and then some for data usage. If this should become a viable mobile computing option, there is need for a reduction in the cost of data usage. This is made even more apparent when one considers data usage in third world and developing countries. For one thing, most of these places either do not have the necessary infrastructural hardware needed to provide consistent data and for that matter voice connectivity and even when this is present the prices only prevent or impede use.

Social or should I say societal:

            Much as this system provides us with up to the minute information on a variety of subjects, it raises the question of privacy. Just as one will be able to find information about ecologically friendly toilet paper (and please do not ask why I chose toilet paper) one could just as easily just find information on any one just by looking them. It is thus not hard to see what malicious uses could be drummed up by those bent on stirring up trouble.  It could be argued that any information that could be gotten by using this system could just as easily be gotten by the use of the use of a laptop or desktop computer. Much as this is true, I am sure that some people will safe knowing that whatever information one may have about them could not be used in their presence …false sense of security but hey that is the world we live in.

 

Mobile computing for some...not so much for others

Mobile phones are a dime a dozen these days. It seems like everyone has one, actually everyone has one including children (this assumption is true if you live in the developed world). For those of us born in the 70’s and before, one cannot help but marvel at how far we have come from the days of the brick sized handhelds to today’s smartphones, tablets, iPads and what have you. For the younger generation, smartphones, tablets, iPads, iPhones, and the list goes on are the norm. It would seem that everywhere one looks these days there is someone using one of those “things” so much so that it seems that having a laptop which used to seem classy is now relegated to being normal. If you want to stand out, you need a smartphone or a tablet.

One cannot help but marvel at the potential that these devices have when it comes to content delivery nor can one even begin to imagine the areas that remain uncharted as far as mobile communication is concerned. In todays world, or at least in the developed well, it is not uncommon to see people logging more than one mobile device in addition to a laptop. I guess the reason behind all of this is portability and ease of use. Additionally there is no preset manual as to how mobile devices need to be used. Each person just uses it as they see fit. With the advent of social networking and the need to constantly check what our peers are doing, having an easy to use, always on Internet connection is necessary or should we say mandatory.

Mobile computing is good but it is useless in my opinion if all it affords its users is the ability to connect, send email and work from where ever they may be. This is in no way means that we are trying to negate the value of these uses of mobile computing, rather it means that while acknowledging these values, we intend to show that we can gain more from it by integrating it with learning or education. Yes, great strides have been made as far as mobile computing is concerned in the developed world and yes there is still a long way to go but my focus is geared towards the third world and developing countries which have their own set of challenges which need to be dealt with to make mobile computing a reality that is worth the effort.

Much as it is true that mobile communication has or is putting the third world onto the communication super highway, it goes without saying that it is this same technology that is making the gap between the haves and the haves not more apparent(the digital divide) but that is another topic. Third world countries particularly those in the Africa south of the Sahara are plagued by several factors that make the use mobile technology not only impractical but at times down right impossible. What this leads to is the idea that developers should have these regions in mind when developing hardware, software and content for mobile consumption.

It is not hard to imagine that social and infrastructural limitations are the reason behind the slow adoptions of mobile communication within these countries. Yes people use mobile phones for voice calls but there are few who use it for anything else and for those that do, it is usually the reach and the affluent. In other cases the lack of basic amenities such as electricity create roadblocks for effective use and in the case where there is electricity it either over priced or unreliable such that users are either turn between feeding themselves or trying to get connected. Finally, content that is particularly to these regions is lacking as content developers tend to focus on areas in which they are likely to make money either by direct sales or by the sale of advertising.

If there is one thing that we have to agree on, it is the fact that mobile computing is going places, but then again it is doing that more so for some areas more than for others. I am able to write this blog with the aid of a mobile device and a free Wi-Fi connection courtesy of Starbucks but then again I am saddened by the fact that some of my brethren in the motherland are not able to that. Just earlier today I was talking to my sister who told me she has not been able to check her email for over two weeks either due to the absence of electricity, a faulty network connection or a combination of both.  So much as we in the developed world are making use of mobile technology in work as well as in play, we need to realize that for some this is or may still only be a dream…